AHL ON THE ROAD: Can Gretzky fix Oilers talent management?
If the Edmonton Oilers are to somehow reverse nearly two decades of futility, a much-improved draft-and-develop model will be required in the NHL salary-cap era.
The Oilers’ struggles are well-documented, but to recap: with a trip to the 2006 Stanley Cup Final long in the rear-view mirror, the team has missed the postseason in 11 of the past 12 seasons. That slide has featured a carousel of eight head coaches in 11 seasons to take a spot behind the Edmonton bench. In the executive offices, there has been only slightly more stability. This week the Oilers ended the run of president of hockey operations and general manager Peter Chiarelli. Kevin Lowe, Steve Tambellini, and Craig MacTavish had taken turns as general manager in Edmonton going back to 2008. Aside from that 2006 playoff run, the Oilers have won three playoff series since 1992. Taking three playoff rounds used mean a disappointing spring in Edmonton during their 1980s dynasty.
The salary cap came to the NHL in 2005, and it changed the NHL-AHL dynamic significantly. Efficient talent development no longer was an advantage – it became a necessity. It forced NHL general managers to create a reliable source of young – and affordable – talent from the AHL in order to allow enough salary-cap flexibility to retain and fit high-priced stars within the cap. Successfully doing so enabled the likes of the Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals to string together long runs of success resulting in Stanley Cup championships. After fumbling player development for years, the Brendan Shanahan era in Toronto ushered in an all-in approach toward player development for the Maple Leafs. Elsewhere, the Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Winnipeg Jets are among the organizations to have built reliable AHL talent pools. They did so and have done so drafting – and developing – talent taken outside of the first round.
That process has happened much more slowly for Edmonton across several AHL affiliations scattered around North America. Even with the likes of Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid arriving in Edmonton via the NHL Draft, they have played alongside thin, hollowed-out rosters. Star talent might light up the marquee outside of the arena, but prolonged on-ice success in the NHL is built around deep line-ups.
As the Oilers have struggled, so have their AHL affiliates – both in developing would-be NHL talent and doing so within a winning AHL environment. Dating to the 2000-01 season, Edmonton has fielded an AHL affiliate in 15 of 18 seasons, a run that began when they were still with the AHL version of the Hamilton Bulldogs. The 2000-01 Bulldogs sat out the postseason before reaching the third round in 2002. For 2002-03, they split Hamilton with the Montreal Canadiens and won the Calder Cup. In 2005-06 and 2006-07, the Oilers did not have an affiliation of their own at all, instead choosing to scatter their prospects across a variety of AHL clubs. That put Edmonton prospects under the thumb of other NHL organizations, stationed wherever the Oilers could find a home for them, playing different systems, and being less of a priority for ice time.
WANDERING THROUGH THE AHL
When they did have their own affiliate, instability persisted. After that Calder Cup victory in 2003, the Canadiens took over the Hamilton club in full. The Oilers had a one-year run in Toronto with the one-and-done Roadrunners, who did not advance past the playoff qualifying round. The following season, the Roadrunners became the Road Runners, played out of Edmonton, and missed the postseason. Those two seasons without a sole affiliate followed before the Oilers struck a deal with the late Springfield Falcons.
The Oilers-Falcons relationship lasted three seasons, all of them playoff misses. From there, the Oilers went to Oklahoma City. There, they finally enjoyed the organization’s most successful run, standings-wise. The Oklahoma City Barons qualified for the postseason in each of their five seasons and took five playoff rounds in that period. The AHL’s great West Coast migration in 2015 resulted in a new Triple-A affiliation with the Bakersfield Condors, their former ECHL affiliate. The Condors have failed to reach the playoffs in their three seasons.
Add up that 18-year stretch with affiliations in six different AHL cities (plus the two seasons without an affiliate of their own), and the results are not pretty. Edmonton has only four seasons with 40 or more wins with a sole AHL affiliation. They have seven AHL playoff-round wins in that time.
Outside of the first-round selections, the list of AHL-developed talent for the Oilers is not particularly impressive. Jarret Stoll and Fernando Pisani count as successes. Kyle Brodziak played two those seasons in which the Oilers lacked a sole affiliate before going on to productive NHL career. Matt Greene took a similar route. Ty Conklin helped lead the 2002-03 Bulldogs to the Calder Cup, though, again, that was in a dual affiliation with the Canadiens. Jeff Petry had a rather quick turn in the AHL before advancing to become a productive NHL defenseman. Marc-Andre Bergeron emerged as an everyday NHL contributor.
Some of the more relatively successful products have not lasted long in Edmonton after graduating from the AHL. Jason Chimera, Laurent Brossoit, Colin McDonald, and Chris VandeVelde compose that group. Other AHL graduates include Brandon Davidson, J.F. Jacques, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Lander, Martin Marincin, Tyler Pitlick, Liam Reddox, Zack Stortini, and Brad Winchester.
A NEW APPROACH?
But that lack of development success might lead to a different approach, at least to hear Oilers Entertainment Group chief executive officer and vice chair Bob Nicholson tell it.
The morning after Chiarelli was fired, the Oilers returned 2017 first-round selection Kailer Yamamoto to Bakersfield. The 20-year-old forward had a 1-1-2 performance in 17 games for the Oilers and struggled to earn ice time from head coach Ken Hitchcock. Edmonton also had seen enough of high-priced disappointment Ryan Spooner and shipped him out to Bakersfield as well.
Spooner’s future in Edmonton seems quite doubtful, but the Oilers desperately need Yamamoto to pan out. Providing him regular ice time and a chance to find some success are two benefits to sending one of their top prospects to the Condors. With the Oilers mired in an ongoing slump and pressure building around the team, perhaps it also sends him away from an already-tense atmosphere that could worsen.
“We want our younger players to develop more in the American Hockey League,” Nicholson said to the Edmonton media in a news conference Wednesday 12 hours after dismissing Chiarelli. “We have some real good players.”
“I think that we bring them up a little bit too early in hope that they’re going to be ready when they’re really, really close. I think that we have to leave them down there until they’re over-ripe. That is a change that we have to make here.”
“[Yamamoto] is on the verge, but he has to play a lot of minutes. We really believe in this player, and we have to do that with more of our assets going forward.”
HOPE ON THE HORIZON
Certainly Edmonton does have reasons for optimism in Bakersfield. The Condors blew out the visiting Colorado Eagles, 7-2, on Wednesday night, giving them six consecutive wins. That took their record to 22-15-2-1, tying them for third place in the Pacific Division with the San Diego Gulls. Depending on the Gulls’ weekend, a clean sweep of the Condors’ two-game road series with the Tucson Roadrunners could put Bakersfield into second place in the division going into the AHL All-Star break.
More crucially for the Oilers, the Condors are finding much of that success via young talent. Rookie forward Tyler Benson has gone on a 1-9-10 tear in his past five games and holds the team scoring lead (5-29-34). Another rookie forward, Cooper Marody, will join Joe Gambardella at the AHL All-Star Classic in representing the Condors. Marody is 9-23-32 in 30 AHL games and had a brief stint with the Oilers. Benson ranks third in AHL rookie scoring, three points off the lead. Marody holds down fourth place among rookies.
Defenseman Ethan Bear is 2-7-9 in his past nine outings. Fellow blueliner Caleb Jones had a long run in Edmonton before heading back to the Condors. Cameron Hebig has also shown promise, and 24-year-old Logan Day has been a significant find while playing on an AHL contract. Taken out of Endicott College, a Division III program, his 23 points (5-18-23) in 38 games have put him third in rookie scoring among AHL defensemen.
For now, the Oilers are without a full-time general manager. A search for Chiarelli’s replacement will be undertaken. The Oilers are trying to save their season, and the NHL trade deadline sits a month away. Assistant general manager Keith Gretzky will take on some of the workload created by Chiarelli’s departure, and Nicholson will handle hockey operations for the Oilers as the team prepares for the trade deadline.
Time will tell whether the Oilers revert to past form with managing young prospects. But if Nicholson’s words Wednesday hold, they could be the first step toward halting this organization’s long-standing problems.
