Previewing the NCAA Frozen Four: New blood creates fresh look for tournament

Handicapping the Frozen Four race has become more and more difficult over the years, and this may be the most difficult yet.Just consider that in three of the last six years, the very last team to qualify for an at-large NCAA tournament bid, won the national championship — Yale in 2013, Providence in 2015 and Minnesota-Duluth last year (qualified by .0001 RPI point). Last year, the No. 1 overall seed lost to the Atlantic Hockey automatic qualifier in the first round, and it wasn’t the first time.

Now consider this year. We already mentioned in a recent column that most of the NCAA’s “blue bloods” would not qualify for the postseason tournament this year, a group that includes 38 previous national champions. Looking further, we see that among the 18 different teams that have played in the national championship game in the last 20 years, only four will probably make the NCAAs this season.

That means a lot of new blood, and it also means, we don’t know how that new blood will react.

Massachusetts is the No. 2 overall Pairwise team at the moment (the Pairwise is the moniker for the system that chooses the NCAA tournament field), and it’s totally untested at this level. Even St. Cloud State, which is headed towards No. 1 for the second straight year, has had hiccups, as we noted earlier.

Minnesota State, also currently in the top four, has been in the tournament a bunch, but never won a game. Denver and Quinnipiac have been here before, but have totally turned over rosters that will face new challenges.

Only Minnesota-Duluth, the defending champs, among the top six are tried and true.

That’s not to say Minnesota State, Denver or Quinnipiac can’t make it. MSU, which is coached by Mike Hastings, who led the U.S. World Junior team this year, manages to do what they do without a lot of blue-chip talent. But the team is a steady force that can beat anyone. Denver lost three big names to the NHL in the offseason, but has restocked, and is getting great goaltending. Quinnipiac has been to two national title games in the last six years, and is a young team that many believed was a year away. But a lot of young talent has meshed more quickly than anyone imagined, and it’s also getting great goaltending. Unfortunately, the team lost senior defenseman Brandon Fortunato to a season-ending injury, and that could cause too big of a hole to fill.

At No. 7, Ohio State lurks. A Frozen Four team a year ago, they have all the pieces in places to do it again, but have recently stumbled seemingly out of nowhere. For the Buckeyes, the struggles may be injury related, and now everyone is healthy again, so we’ll see if they get back on track. They still have the most “complete” team of anyone, so I am confident in them, but the recent results have caused me unforseen worry.

Then we get to Arizona State. Does it get any more “new blood” than that? The Sun Devils are participating in just their third full season of Division I hockey, and suddenly find themselves in the middle of the NCAA picture. They have held their own against a lot of big-name teams this year, but remember, a lot of those big names are having rough years themselves, relatively speaking. No one knows what to expect from ASU, but it doesn’t hurt that it has two legit Hobey Baker Award candidates in forward Johnny Walker and goaltender Joey Daccord, plus a high-end, under-the-radar defenseman in Brinson Pasichnuk.

Tyler Madden of Northeastern. Photo: Dan Hickling / Hickling Images

Northeastern, currently at No. 9, is intriguing. With two straight Beanpot Tournament championships, the Huskies also have a top-notch goalie in Cayden Primeau, and a tremendous talent in forward Tyler Madden, both sons of one-time NHL stars. (Another former NHL star’s son, Eetu Selanne, doesn’t play as much.) But the last time Northeastern won an NCAA tournament round was 1982.

Providence at No. 10 is another intriguing case, because it may be the most solid team, top to bottom, of anyone out there, but it has struggled to score at times, and it has cost the Friars some games. Whether that means the team is lacking something or it’s just bad luck, is hard to pinpoint. Win a couple of those games, and Providence is looking at a No. 1 seed in the tournament.

Then you get to Western Michigan, which has also had little NCAA tournament success, and also succumbed to Air Force in the first round of the NCAAs a few years ago. The Broncos are followed by Clarkson, Cornell and Harvard, three teams that may be killing each other off in the ECAC race over the next few weeks. Clarkson and Cornell, in particular, are hurt by having to play each other in the regular-season finale. All three have shown flashes of being able to make a run, and have teams that have gained experience in the NCAAs in recent years, but also have some maddening breakdowns and bad games that cause concern.

So what are we left with? I am loathe to make predictions, since it will inevitably be wrong, but if forced to handicap it somewhat, there are four teams I can squeeze past the rest of the field:

Minnesota-Duluth is practically a no brainer. I’m adding Providence to that mix — the Friars have a proven coach and system, and enough talent to make a run, no matter what their Pairwise rank is. Then we’ll add in Ohio State, for my money, the most complete team out there, it’s just a matter of executing.

Ryan Poehling (St. Cloud State) and Cayden Primeau (Northeastern) participated in the 2019 WJC finals for USA against Finland. Photo: Joel Marklund / Bildbyrån.

Last but not least, I think this is the year St. Cloud State finally breaks through, and perhaps goes even further than its Frozen Four appearance of 2013. With a first-year coach in Brett Larson, who was an assistant for UMD’s championship team last season, the Huskies have an “it” factor going for them right now. Like OSU, they brought a lot of players back from last year’s strong team, and they are on a mission. Ryan Poehling and Jimmy Schuldt are top tier players, and they are very deep, with everyone contributing.

We’ve all been burned by No. 1 seeds before, so picking what will likely be two of them (SCSU and UMD) to make it, is a dicey proposition. But those teams are having strong regular seasons for a reason.

This will all shake down in the coming weeks, and then we’ll see how foolish I look.