Elite Prospects 3 Stars: The Central Division is pretty damn good, isn't it?
It's starting to look like I owe Sheldon Keefe an apology.
Only took eight games but last night saw the start of another season of that patented Maple Leafs Hockey prompting new coach Craig Berube to start shouting at his star players as they came off the ice. After the game he said the team is playing too cute.
All along, I really thought this was a Keefe-is-too-much-of-a-players'-coach problem. They started games poorly too often under his leadership. He didn't seem to have many answers for what was wrong. I didn’t dismiss the “the top players are too soft” argument out of hand because that’s at least somewhat obvious, but over the course of 82 games, the talent usually shone through. But now? Berube was brought in to be the hardass, to crack the whip, to motivate not by letting guys take a too-long shift, but by being really tough and intimidating. And the results, to date, are the same or worse. No injuries to anyone super important either—just a good, old-fashioned slow start from most of his best players, typified by the fact that the power play stinks. Same old mysterious Leafs, etc.
They should be fine. They’ll probably reach 100 points again with relatively little difficulty. All this consternation, and it’s about a .500 start from which a lot of positives could theoretically be taken. But if you’re looking for moral victories eight games into the season for a team with a recent history like these Leafs? That’s not good.
Let's go:
3. That quote about best-laid plans
One of the big reasons a lot of people started saying this was the year for all those ex-Coyotes in Utah to take a big step and maybe even make the playoffs was that they spent a good chunk of their resources and energy this summer upgrading the blue line.
They brought in John Marino and Mikhail Sergachev via trade at the draft. They signed Ian Cole. They extended Sean Durzi and Juuso Valimaki. It looked like an actual NHL blue line. Maybe not an extremely competitive one unless guys took steps, but much better nevertheless.
This week, though: yikes.
The team announced Marino is out for up to four months after getting back surgery, and that’s after missing every game so far with his new club due to this injury. At the same time, they announced Durzi is out for up to six months following shoulder surgery. Just awful. And suddenly that improved blue line doesn’t feel so improved.
Which is too bad because the vibes were great in the first couple of weeks. So great that people were willfully ignoring that a bunch of those wins were in OT. In fact, they haven’t won in regulation since opening night.
The fact that they’re giving up the eighth-most goals per game so far this season strikes me as bad, but even if every defenceman on the roster were fit as a fiddle, you can’t win with .870 team goaltending.
So the work really starts now in Utah. If you’re a playoff team, especially in that division, you’ve got to prove it and prove it quick. If the approximate timelines on these injuries are accurate, Utah’s not even getting one of them back until late January or so. There’s a real chance the season is well over for them by that point if the team can’t start playing better, which is, of course, less likely with replacement players in the lineup instead. And that’s before getting into whatever other injuries will happen between now and then. It’s a contact sport, after all.
What a bummer. There was plenty of reason for optimism with this franchise for the first time in at least a decade. Now this. You just hope they can salvage something and give people reason to keep showing up in what I’m sure the league expects to be a strong market.
2. Testing the waters
I guess it shouldn't be surprising that teams are already out here trying to make trades and whatnot, but it feels like the season is only a couple weeks old, so trade talks already emerging feel a bit jarring.
Related to the above, you're hearing that Utah is getting some irons in the fire here and that only makes sense: They're beset by injuries, have a ton of cap room (another reason to think their long-term ability to compete this season was questionable), and have assets other teams would probably want to get their hands on. Picks and prospects without the need to take money back? Most NHL teams would be thrilled to find out they can make something work there.
The other big-name team that seems to be working the phones these days is Montreal, and the reasons for that strike me as "less clear." Nobody, including them, likely thought they were going to be a playoff team, or even a playoff contender, but they're still probably below expectations. Now, I think you can chalk that underperformance up to any number of issues, including the Patrik Laine injury, but the idea that the Habs should be buyers just so they can get to 80 points or whatever is nonsense to me. Doesn't mean they won't do it, but I just don't see the point. If you're an 80-point team versus a 72-point team, who cares? What's the meaningful difference? You might have a game in January or something that feels big — "feels" being the key word because in actuality it won't be — but the end result is the same. And at that point you might as well get the potential top-five pick instead of, say, the 11th.
At least with Utah, they can add guys who help them this season and beyond because of all their cap flexibility. However, they are apparently just looking at rentals for now, which I also don't really understand. But at least there's pressure there to add someone who can pick up the slack a little. New market, more expectations, all that. In Montreal, if they didn't think they were gonna make the playoffs anyway, I truly don't get the impulse to become a buyer in October and November.
1. How 'bout that Central Division?
Let’s have a look at the standings here. Ah yes, only two teams left without a regulation loss. And as we all suspected, those teams are the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild.
They’ve combined to outscore their opponents 55-26, and one of the Wild’s two OT losses was to the Jets, so that’s actually more impressive somehow.
To be fair, you have to say that for the Jets, it’s at least a little bit of smoke-and-mirrors hockey because they’re on the lower end in terms of the quality of their 5-on-5 play, but the special teams really make up for it, as does the fact that they have a world-class goaltender whose ability to play .920 hockey cannot be questioned at this point. Put another way, y’know, no one plays 1.000 hockey all year, but you take the wins where you can get ’em.
But the Wild? They’re one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the league, in addition to getting goaltending that’s not sustainable. Kirill Kaprizov is playing out of his mind, too, and maybe that does feel like it can keep going all year. Obviously, .857 hockey isn’t gonna last either, but at least the skaters are laying the foundation for a lot more regular-season success, in addition to getting outsized save percentages.
The really interesting thing here is how this shakes up the West playoff race. These teams have already banked 14 and 12 points. Even with Dallas starting really hot, and Colorado seemingly having figured it out in these last four games, you’ve got to say that the Central could be in chaos all year now, and the knock-on effect for the West wild card can’t be overstated. The Blues are punching above their weight right now, too.
Five Central teams in the playoffs always felt like a distinct if not strong possibility. Now it feels almost likely, depending on how much you think Nashville figures it out. But 10 percent of the way into the season or so, who on earth thought the Central standings would go Winnipeg, Minnesota, Dallas, St. Louis, Utah, Colorado, Chicago, Nashville?
What a division. What a league. What a sport.
