EP Rinkside's top 20 left wingers going into the 2024-25 NHL season

Everyone has some idea of how they expect the 2024-25 NHL season to play out. As we know all too well, though, it doesn't often play out that way. This sport is exceptionally difficult to predict. Even the best standings forecasts often miss by about 10 points on average – per team, not in total.

Frankly, you could argue it's silly to even try to make a serious projection of what's ahead. On the other hand, it is September…

So, we're going to try our best to make some predictions anyway, with the fourth run of EP Rinkside's annual NHL player rankings. If you're new here, then here's the breakdown. We go position-by-positioning, ranking the 20 best players and sorting them into tiers based on how I expect them to perform in the upcoming season.

You might expect this to be based purely on numbers, but I can assure you that I'm not just sorting by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and calling it a day. I take a more holistic approach, leaning on my own expertise, TopDownHockey's WAR model, Corey Sznajder's manually tracked microstats, and data from our partners at InStat Hockey. This should result in a more balanced and reasonable ranking than any one method would alone.

This year, I've also decided to change up the presentation a bit. In the past, I've used graphics directly inspired by my player cards, showing both projected WAR for the coming season and six of the player in question's strongest attributes, selected from a set of data points, to give a quick look at what these guys do best. 

Inspired by the work done by EP Rinkside's prospect writers, I've chosen to take a different tack this time around. While I won't go quite so far as adopting the nine-point rating system – nobody wants to hear me talk in detail about skating technique – the new graphics include projected player ratings for the 2024-25 season in four categories: offensive zone play, defence, transition play, and miscellaneous. Departing from the percentile rankings I use on player cards, I've gone with a 1-to-10 rating based on projected finish to respect the uncertainty at play here. The idea is to provide a broader impression of every player's strengths and weaknesses instead of focusing entirely on the positive parts of their game.

Here's an example:

Here's a list of the metrics used, all of them per 60 5-on-5 projections for the 2024-25 season based on the previous three seasons of results. I've also marked their source (TopDownHockey = TDH, AllThreeZones = A3Z, InStat = IS, NHL = NHL)

Offensive Zone

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's generation of expected goals (i.e. shots weighed by likelihood of going in) when he's on the ice (TDH)
• Slot Shots: Scoring chances from the slot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Shots: Shots from other areas of the offensive zone (A3Z)
• Finishing Touch: Goals scored above expected given quality of shots (TDH)
• Slot Passes: Passes to the slot resulting in a shot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Passing: Passes to other areas of the offensive zone resulting in a shot (A3Z)

Defence

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's prevention of expected goals when he's on the ice (TDH)
• D-Zone Puck Touches: Puck touches within the defensive zone (A3Z)
• Takeaways: Pucks stolen from opponents (IS)
• Puck Battles: 50/50 battles for the puck engaged in (IS)
• Body Checks: Hits as counted by the league (away only to filter out recording bias) (NHL)
• Forechecking: Offensive zone puck recoveries and pressures on opposing defencemen (A3Z)

Transition

• Transition Workload: Transition plays with the puck (A3Z)
• Transition Possession: Rate at which the player makes transition plays with possession as opposed to dump-ins and clears (A3Z)
• Transition Carries: Transition plays by carrying the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Passes: Transition plays by passing the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Offence: Shots and passes leading to slots off the rush (A3Z)

Miscellaneous

• Speed: Weighed combination of a player's top speed and frequency with which they exceed 22 miles per hour (NHL)
• Puck Touches: Puck touches in any zone (IS)
• Turnover Avoidance: Turnovers per puck touch (IS)
• Deking: One-on-one dekes (IS)
• Penalty +/-: Net non-coincidental minor penalties drawn versus taken (TDH)

Player positions used in this list will be based directly on the work of @NHL_Rosters on Twitter, who has been running the most accurate depth charts in the league for several years now. There's no doubt a lot of flexibility in the positions that players (especially wingers) play, so it is very likely that if you notice an egregious absence, the player will be included in a forthcoming piece.

One last thing: I am aware that some players listed here are currently expected to play at right wing or centre to begin the 2024-25 season, but this stuff is so touch-and-go that it's just easier to use one source and stick to it.

Tier 1 - Generational

Tier 2 - MVP Contenders

1. Kirill Kaprizov - Minnesota Wild

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

After a “disappointing” 2022-23 season, where he only scored at a 48-goal, 91-point pace, Kaprizov was once again an absolute demon last season. He had his highest-ever goals-per-game pace while nearing the 100-point mark once again, all while continuing to be one of the most effective dual threats in the NHL.

His extremely consistent sniping (fifth in the NHL in the past three seasons) is the result of an extremely efficient process in which he always seems to be open for a one-timer, a tip at the net front, or a wicked wrister from the outside. It's all the more impressive, considering he's more of a passer than a shooter, arguably the second-best playmaking left wing in the league. Very few players at his possession are more of a threat off of sustained offensive zone pressure, and this translates to some of the best powerplay numbers in the NHL.

He's also a strong puck-carrier in transition and frequently finds his line-mates off the rush. Kaprizov expanded his defensive role in the 2023-24 season, becoming more active at the beginning of transitional plays in his own end. 

2. Artemi Panarin - New York Rangers

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

The best left winger in 2023-24 – by a solid margin – was Panarin, who, at age 32, delivered a career year that absolutely blew his Hart-worthy 2019-20 campaign out of the water. The elite playmaking we've come to expect from the Russian superstar over the years remained intact as he led all left wingers in 5-on-5 scoring chance assists and passes to the slot for the second year in a row (and he'd likely have surpassed his career high in assists if it weren't for some sketchy finishing from his linemates).

No player at his position even came close to his level of shot creation off the rush, especially impressive considering that he lost a step in terms of skating speed (which wasn't exactly blazing to begin with). The two elements he added this season were elite goal-scoring and improved defensive play, which combined to make him pretty much unstoppable. That he wasn't a Hart nominee says more about how stacked the league is at the moment than anything about him.

Tier 3 - Franchise Wingers

3. Jason Robertson - Dallas Stars

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

At first blush, Robertson's 2023-24 campaign looks pretty disappointing. After scoring at a 46-goal pace in 2021-22 and 2022-23, he dropped to 29, resulting in his first sub-point-per-game season since his rookie year. This wasn't just a product of bad luck either; Robertson's offensive creation dropped precipitously in terms of expected goal impact, finishing, chance and shot creation, and primary production. I'm not too concerned about that, though,

The Stars' top unit was a lot more defence-focused last season, and Robertson's workload in his own end and exiting the puck was much higher than it had been in previous years, and both he and Roope Hintz had to cope with Joe Pavelski's game finally declining. With Wyatt Johnston expected to take Pavelski's spot, I expect to see Robertson bounce back while hopefully maintaining the elite defensive play we saw in the 2023-24 season.

4. Filip Forsberg - Nashville Predators

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

Forsberg’s jack-of-all-trades skillset and his team’s relatively small market often lead him to fall under the radar, but it speaks to the strength of elite talent in the league that his career-best 48-goal, 94-point season didn’t get more attention. The 30-year-old is a terrific passer and individual chance creator, has one of the best pairs of hands in the league, carries the puck in transition, takes care of business in the defensive zone and in the corners, and holds his own physically. He played a huge role in leading his team to the playoffs, and as the Preds fully embrace a win-now mentality, he’ll be key to their success moving forward.

5. Jake Guentzel - Tampa Bay Lightning

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

There were two big questions surrounding Guentzel entering his 2023-24 season, where he was a pending UFA for the first time in his career: how much was his offence a product of playing with a generational linemate, and could his defensive impact improve in the right setting.

Both were answered solidly in the affirmative. In a new environment in Carolina, he thrived, scoring at a 100-point pace in the regular season and playoffs combined, a solid increase compared to his roughly point-per-game pace of the past few seasons in Pittsburgh. Guentzel's patience with the puck and intelligence when his line-mates have it make him one of the easiest wingers to play with in the league, as he can always be trusted to make the right play or get to the right spot to create a high-danger pass.

By virtue of who he plays with, he's a shot-first player (and that's unlikely to change if he's lining up with Nikita Kucherov for the next several years), and he led the league in expected goals per game in the regular season while finishing top five in chances and shots from the slot. But he's also a clever and opportunistic passer, as Brayden Point will likely have the luxury of finding out, and I would expect some electric tick-tack-toe goals in the near future. While the defensive struggles might come back, moving from a generational playmaking centre to a generational playmaking winger shouldn't be an issue – the one thing that could stand to turn around is his finishing touch near the net, which has been a nagging problem the past few years.

Tier 4 - All-Star

6. Carter Verhaeghe - Florida Panthers

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

I've been going to bat for Verhaeghe in this column for years, and with another excellent season capped off with a Cup ring (and leading the champions in goals, by the way), I've got no problems keeping the love-in going. He's an utterly consistent set-your-watch-to-it dual threat who's a terrific skater, a deadly passer in tight, and a wicked scorer as well. Whether he's leading the rush or keeping the pressure up in the offensive zone, you can count on the Panthers racking up deadly scoring chances and probably goals as well with him on the ice. His defense, and especially his discipline when it comes to penalties, could be better, but it's a pretty easy trade-off.

7. Brandon Hagel - Tampa Bay Lightning

2023 Ranking: Not ranked

The Lightning took a big risk when they acquired Hagel in 2022, a young former sixth-round pick scoring at a 55-point pace in an inflated role on a terrible team. What they identified in his game was the combination of the forechecking they’ve valued throughout this Cup window with extremely strong puck skills and playmaking ability.

In Chicago, that passing came to nothing. In Tampa, it’s resulted in a 49-assist season, lots of goals, and the emergence of one of the strongest and most well-rounded two-way wingers in the game. Hagel can handle the puck in transition, he’s got great hands, he gets to the dirty areas of the ice in the corners and in front of the net; there isn’t a lot he can’t do.

8. Clayton Keller - Utah Hockey Club

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

The Coyotes’ existence ended with Keller leading them in points for four straight seasons, a testament both to his consistent production and often dubious teammates. Although not necessarily an analytical darling, Keller is an extremely visible presence on the ice with flashy passing skills and a high-end finishing touch. Utah’s transition game will likely run through him, and it won’t surprise anyone if he’s an immediate fan favourite in the new market.

9. Kyle Connor - Winnipeg Jets

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

In last year’s ranking, I said that Connor’s diminished chance creation and goal-scoring in the 2022-23 season was probably nothing to be too worried about, and he’d probably score closer to his career-high of 47 set in 2021-22 than 30. A 42-goal pace with his trademark combination of elite chance creation, one-timers and rush shots galore, one-on-one dekes, and aversion to defence we’ve come to know and love showed that I wasn’t far off. I’ll make a similar call this time: the drop in assists from the pace of 48 set in the previous two seasons to 27 last year is more a sign of poor puck luck than a more one-dimensional offensive style.

Tier 5 - Great First Liner

10. Andrei Svechnikov - Carolina Hurricanes

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

Another year, another blurb for Svechnikov where I talk about strong underlying numbers and good but still somewhat disappointing individual results. Once again, he paced at roughly 70 points with a bit of a goal-scoring dip. Once again, he ranked well in generating offence in the slot, both by passing and shooting the puck. Once again, his weaknesses - including a below-average finishing touch, prone-ness to turnovers, lack of defensive involvement, and near-league-worst penalty differential – held back a skill set that should put him much earlier on this list.

11. Brady Tkachuk - Ottawa Senators

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

The 2023-24 season was a bit of a step forward and step back for Tkachuk in various areas of the game. All those core elements of his skillset that we've come to expect were still present – he set career-highs in goals, penalty minutes, and hits while finishing in the top five in rebounds, slot shots, and rush shots.

However, the playmaking aspect he seemed to add in 2022-23 regressed, although he did tie his career high in 5-on-5 primary assists with 20. Those high-end passing metrics last season were a major indication to me that he had the potential to be a lot more than a net-front physical specialist and could be a real unicorn, and I'll be looking for that more well-rounded game to snap back this time around.

12. Chris Kreider - New York Rangers

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Fifty-two goals are probably not going to happen for Kreider again unless every point shot that hits his stick tips in like it did in 2021-22, but the 38-goal pace he’s scored at ever since (not to mention the 14 goals in 23 playoff games) has been pretty encouraging. We all know he makes his reputation, causing chaos in front of the net, but it’s easy to forget the other strengths of his game, from above-average speed (especially for a 33-year-old) to rush offence to puck management.

13. Quinton Byfield - Los Angeles Kings

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

I'm going to include Byfield on this list because his primary position is still listed as left wing, even though it's possible and even likely that this is the season he ends up permanently at his drafted position in the middle of the ice.

The 22-year-old second-overall pick took a major step forward in essentially all areas of the game in his fourth NHL season, scoring 20 goals (an improvement from his previous 82-game pace of three), setting career-highs in assists and points and becoming a much better play-driver at both ends of the ice. His skating, the subject of much consternation as a prospect, may not look pretty but gets the job done, and he's proven himself more than willing to use his size to cause trouble along the boards and harass opponents for the puck. There's still an offensive leap still to be made here, and I wouldn't bet against it.

14. Timo Meier - New Jersey Devils

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Meier seemed like a perfect fit for the Devils, a team bursting with fleet-footed skill players that really needed a big and strong goal-scorer who could get to dangerous areas of the ice. That notion hasn’t been totally disproven — he has scored at a 33-goal pace in New Jersey so far — but there have been unexpected challenges along the way. His underlying numbers and microstats dropped a lot in 2023-24, and while his track record is strong enough for him to project as the combo transition-driver and net-front creator, there’s a reason he’s dropped from the No. 7 spot he was at last year.

15. Brad Marchand - Boston Bruins

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Marchand’s age-curve-defying career is a lot closer to its end than its beginning, and it’s possible that a big drop-off is coming sooner rather than later. The 36-year-old has taken a step back from his elite peak, but an almost 30-goal campaign with fairly strong numbers across the board (including deployment in all situations) suggests we may have to wait a while yet for this generation’s super-pest to no longer be a major factor on the ice.

Tier 6 - First Liners

16. Adrian Kempe - Los Angeles Kings

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

Los Angeles’ speedster Kempe predictably saw a regression in terms of goal-scoring from his 41 in the 2022-23 season but nonetheless set a comfortable career-high in assists and points. Kempe’s game was no doubt a bit more one-dimensional last year, with his even strength defensive numbers dropping and his tendencies leaning even further towards the rush-based shoot-first style, but anyone with that ability to score from range and make himself open is a really useful contributor. It doesn’t hurt that he contributes ably on both special teams.

17. Cole Caufield - Montreal Canadiens

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

Caufield can be a bit of a lightning rod for negative attention given his size and lack of defensive impact, and while those factors are certainly his biggest weaknesses, he made progress developing his strengths in the 2023-24 season.

While it's no secret that it was a disappointing year in terms of goal-scoring – he led left wings in goals per 60 as a sophomore but converted a lot closer to average last season – his passing metrics took a big leap forward, a good sign that should pay off in terms of better open looks as well as increased primary assists. Indeed, 2023-24 was Caufield's first full season at any level since he was 14-years-old where his assist totals outmatched his goal totals. Caufield will be wearing #13 this season, a fitting tribute to the late Johnny Gaudreau, who would, of course, have appeared on this list.

18. Alex DeBrincat - Detroit Red Wings

2023 Ranking: Not ranked

Two-time 40-goal scorer DeBrincat is still having trouble living up to his scoring pedigree since leaving Chicago, but his first stint with the Red Wings showed some promising signs under the hood, even if the point totals were almost identical to the 2022-23 season. The formerly-elite finishing touch is lagging a bit – his 5-on-5 scoring rate since leaving the Hawks is down 25 percent compared to his first five seasons in the league – but his overall offensive package was always underrated, and he's finding a way to create quality looks, at a high rate. Defence is an issue, and you'll rarely find him in the corners, but he knows his role and plays it well. Does he still have 35-plus goal upside?

19. Alexis Lafrenière - New York Rangers

2023 Ranking: Not ranked

The pieces are starting to come together for Lafrenière, a natural left wing who flipped positions to attain a permanent spot on the Rangers’ top line in 2023-24 and set career-highs in goals, assists, and points while producing eight goals and 14 points in 16 playoff games. As a prospect, Lafrenière’s greatest strength was taking control of the game by paralyzing opposing defenders while calculating the optimal way to get the puck into the slot. While NHL blueliners are tougher to manipulate than QMJHL teenagers, his knack for timing routes into dangerous areas to get open for tap-in chances is finally combined with more confident playmaking and involvement with the puck in transition. The upside here is Guentzel, but there’s a way yet to go to get there.

20. JJ Peterka - Buffalo Sabres

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Let's take a chance here. In his second full NHL season, playing third-line minutes (or, more accurately, relatively limited middle-six minutes in the Sabres' line-rolling set-up), Peterka potted 28 goals and notched 50 points. He flashed some high-end skill, not only scoring at an extremely efficient rate but ranking highly in scoring chances, shots of high-danger passes, rush opportunities, and dekes.

With Jeff Skinner no longer with the franchise, Peterka enters the season as the Sabres' clear No. 1 left wing and is poised to continue his development. An elevated role will require him to work on his playmaking and pick up some defensive slack, and we'll see whether he can build on his sophomore glow-up.